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From:Joshua D. Drake Date:April 24 2009 3:36pm
Subject:RE: Oracle , what else ?
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On Fri, 2009-04-24 at 10:56 -0400, Martin Gainty wrote:
> IF MySQL returns to opensource..(presumably under Monty's benevolent
> leadership)
> then packages that utilise MySQL could be "for paying clients only"
> 
> from your perspective what is the future of MySQL?

Interesting question. I think MySQL will live on in various incarnations
but I do think its glory days are over. It will be a supported but
second class citizen from Oracle.

I was at Innotech yesterday speaking on the open source panel
(http://vimeo.com/4307197) and one of the participants stated that they
were nervous about the fact that MySQL had been bought twice in the last
two years. I did mention that I didn't think MySQL was going away and
that Oracle is a smart company and there is a lot of mind share with
MySQL.

However, Oracle is not interested in the 1000/yr business. For the most
part that is where MySQL revenue is. It is estimated that MySQL AB was
only doing 50M a year when they were bought by Sun. 50M a year is petty
cash for Oracle.

So Oracle has two choices, completely change MySQL to make it more
profitable and thus alienate its main user base (small websites) or
maintain it long enough to allow MySQL to kill itself. MySQL is already
killing itself through the various forks that have permeated through the
last 9 months.

Another issue I see is the potential for mass migration from MySQL by
non web applications. Yes there are a lot of them. Why? Because one way
Oracle can make money from MySQL is to continue to charge for "linked"
software against MySQL. If you are building a web app as long as your
web language is open source, you are good with the GPL.

However if you are building a monolithic app in say C++ you have a
serious problem because the nature of the GPL guarantees that your C++
app will have to be open source. As much as a lot of us are pro Open
Source the majority (by far) of the world still isn't. MySQL does have a
strong following in the appliance state in this way.

I would expect that MySQL in two years likely won't exist except on the
most tertiary level. Most new projects will be developed in either
PostgreSQL, Interbase or one of the forks (MariaDB, Drizzle).


Sincerely,

Joshua D. Drake


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Thread
Oracle , what else ?Gilles MISSONNIER21 Apr
  • Re: Oracle , what else ?Simon Connah21 Apr
  • Re: Oracle , what else ?Martijn Tonies21 Apr
    • Re: Oracle , what else ?Joshua D. Drake22 Apr
      • Re: Oracle , what else ?Glyn Astill23 Apr
        • Re: Oracle , what else ?Joshua D. Drake23 Apr
  • Re: Oracle , what else ?mos21 Apr
    • Re: Oracle , what else ?Andy Shellam21 Apr
    • Re: Oracle , what else ?Yves Goergen23 Apr
    • RE: Oracle , what else ?Gabriel - IP Guys23 Apr
      • RE: Oracle , what else ?Janek Bogucki28 Apr
        • RE: Oracle , what else ?John Daisley28 Apr
          • RE: Oracle , what else ?mos28 Apr
      • RE: Oracle , what else ?Janek Bogucki28 Apr
  • Re: Oracle , what else ?Martijn Tonies24 Apr
    • Re: Oracle , what else ?Joshua D. Drake24 Apr
    • Re: Oracle , what else ?mos24 Apr
Re: Oracle , what else ?John Daisley22 Apr
  • Re: Oracle , what else ?Arthur Fuller22 Apr
    • Re: Oracle , what else ?NĂ©stor22 Apr
      • Re: Oracle , what else ?mos22 Apr
        • Re: Oracle , what else ?Krishna Chandra Prajapati22 Apr
  • Re: Oracle , what else ?Martijn Tonies22 Apr
RE: Oracle , what else ?Joshua D. Drake24 Apr
  • Re: Oracle , what else ?David Sparks24 Apr
    • Re: Oracle , what else ?Glyn Astill24 Apr
      • Re: Oracle , what else ?David Sparks24 Apr
        • Re: Oracle , what else ?Glyn Astill24 Apr
          • Index time columns?Bryan Cantwell24 Apr
            • RE: Index time columns?Andrew Braithwaite27 Apr
        • Re: Oracle , what else ?Joshua D. Drake27 Apr
      • Re: Oracle , what else ?Joshua D. Drake27 Apr
    • Re: Oracle , what else ?Joshua D. Drake27 Apr