The main question is:
Will Oracle permits a cheaper DB in his portfolio with almost the same
reliability than his main and expensive DB?
Ok. MySQL is the main database in a wide 'open source' community. That
people never will bought Oracle to build a phpBB forum or to install Joomla,
but what happen with Flirk, Amazon.com, Digg, CNET, Craiglist, Nokia,
Wordpress, Wikipedia, YouTube, FaceBook, ... and other 'big fishs'? Will
they "invited" to buy Oracle?
Most of the end medium-small firms uses MySQL because know that "successful
cases" and they rely on MySQL. But what happens if those 'big fishs' abandon
MySQL and migrates to Oracle? Will the actual rely in a enterprise
I'm sure that Oracle won't abandon MySQL, but will use this "influence" to
"invite" to that big end users to migrate to Oracle. I suppose that will
made them "an offer they can't refuse". First reducing the actual rate of
patches, slowing the developing of the connectors (.NET connector, ODBC,
J/Connector) and in a prudential time offering Oracle to a ridiculous part
of this prize and supporting them in the migration with a huge quantity of
hours in experts. But only to that 'big fishs'.
When there's no 'big fish' in the MySQL ocean, the CEOs in the small-medium
enterprise will think "No big project is using MySQL. I have doubts and fear
about using MySQL in my enterprise. I'll call to Oracle to paid a huge
quantity of money and all my doubts and fears will disappears".
And I think, the same strategy will use them with "Glass Fish"
(http://java.sun.com/javaee/community/glassfish/). Oracle has 2 JAVA EE
application servers: OAS (will be deprecated in short) and Weblogic.
I think in a few years MySQL will be only the database for phpBB and Joomla
and in 5 years MySQL will replace to "Oracle Personal Edition".