why flush hosts when we have no clue?

[gao marko]

I got host blocked error. Mysql asks me to run flush hosts to solve this.
I don't want to do it everytime without knowing what happened at the 
backend.

Is there a way to check how this happened? mysql says this will happen when 
aborted connection reaches max_connect_errors times. But, how does it 
trigger? 
Does it mean if I started mysql daemon 10 years ago, and we got aborted 
connection once a year, at the 10th year, we will get host blocked 
eventually?
Mysql doesn't document the mechanism in detail.

And, is there a way to detect it before it reaches the max_connect_errors 
threshhold? so that we can sent out warning before our site actually go 
down.

many thanks,

Hongyi

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